Generate trend projection
See also:
CAPTRD, CAPRI documentation, PDF
Exogenous projections (The reference run), PDF
Purpose
Projects data at the Member State, regional level and farm type level. Used as input for "Baseline calibration". The aim of the projection
is to generate the most probable future state under current law, i.e. taken current and decided upon policy changes into account.
The process is split up in different steps in the GAMS code:
- Estimation of trends of for all time series to projects (several thousand ones)
- Calculation of trend forecasts for the time series and their forecasting errors for the different projection points
- Derivation of "expected means" for the forecasts, taking R2 squared and the policy shifts into account
- Estimation of mutually consistent trends at the Member State levels based on a Highest Posterior Density Estimator
- Aggregation of the Member State results to EU level, and comparison with exogenous projections. Correction of supports
- Estimation of mutually consistent trends at the NUTS 2 level, taking the Member States results as given
- Estimation of mutually consistent trends at the farm type level, taking the NUTS 2 results as given
The supply module and
market model of CAPRI are
in in the task baseline calibration calibrated to these results.
That task is part of the baseline work step.
Usage
The different controls steer the data base and baseline underlying the run, and various model settings affecting the simulation
behaviour. Please refer to the CAPRI documentation and the content
on the CAPRI web page for further information.
- Base year: the base year (three-year average), determines the data base to use.
- First year: the year for which trend estimates start
- Simulation year: the simulation year
- Last year: the last projection year
- Member States: either all if the global market model is switched on, or user selected.
- Regional Break Down: typically, first
results are generate at Member State level for all countries together.
Afterwards, "NUTS 2" (about 250 regions for EU27, Western Balkans and
Norway) and "Farm type results" can be generated for single
countries.The "Farm types" are currently still in a testing phase, a
final release a planned for spring 2009.