Generate policy shifts
See also:
CAPMOD, CAPRI documentation, PDF
CAPTRD, CAPRI documentation, PDF
Exogenous projections (The reference run), PDF
Purpose
The purpose of the step is to evaluate the effect of the policy
changes from the base year to the simulation in the base year. The
policy file used is that underlying the current baseline, i.e. at the level of technical
progress, population size, income per head of the base year.
It is hence a expost run
with a different policy.
The aim is
to separate effects from policy changes from changes in other exgeonous
drivers. The resulting changes are expressed as precentage change
against the base year and used in the by the task Generate trend projection to correct the trend
forecasts.
The task is part of the work step baseline, and the results are used by the task Generate trend projection.
Usage
The different controls steer the data base and baseline underlying the run, and various model settings affecting the simulation
behaviour. Please refer to the CAPRI documentation and the content
on the CAPRI web page for further information.
- Base year: the base year (three-year average), determines the data base and calibration point to use.
- Simulation year: the simulation year, determines the calibration point to use, and the year for the policy scenario.
- Member States: either all if the global market model is switched on, or user selected.
- Regional Break Down: typically, NUTS 2 is used (about 250 regions for EU27, Western Balkans and Norway). Resolution at "Member States"
is only useful for testing purposes. The "Farm types" are currently still in a testing phase, a final release a planned for spring 2009.
- Number of iterations: The supply module and
market model of CAPRI
are sequentially
linked. The market model is calibrated to results of the supply
model, whereas the supply model is solve at prices of the market model.
The number of iterations determine how often that process is repeated.
Usually, 15 iterations are chosen for production runs.
- Scenario file name: File in GAMS format
storing the exogenous drivers for the simulation. A text editor as e.g.
the GAMS IDE should be used to open and edit those files, found in the
"GAMS\POL_INPUT" directory of the current CAPRI model file directory.
- Global market model: If switched on, the
model will iterate between the supply module
and target="_parent"market model, and prices for
primary and secondary agricultural products will be endogenous.
- Young animal market model: If switched on, the
model will iterate between the supply module
and market module for young animals, and prices for
young animals will be endogenous.
The remaining four check boxes will switch on and off certain parts of the post-model reporting.
Note
During the run, selected results from the iterations can be opended in a separate viewer as described
in Tracking the iteration behaviour of CAPRI.