Baseline calibration
See also:
Baseline Calibration, CAPRI documentation, PDF
Exogenous projections (The reference run), PDF
Purpose
Calibrates the market model of CAPRI to the results
of the trend projection. That task is part of the baseline work step.
Currently, the following steps are involved in the process:
- Generation of a mutual consistent set of market balances, trade
flows and prices at the global level for the base year, taking the results from CAPREG at the national level as given.
The data for the countries not covered by CAPREG are generated by GLOBAL (that part is planned to be moved into GLOBAL in the near future).
- Generation of a mutual consistent set of market balances, trade flows and prices at the global
level for the simulation year, taking the results from CAPTRD at the national level as given.
Forcasts for the countries not covered by CAPREG are generated in parts by GLOBAL (that part is planned to be moved into CAPTRD in the near future).
- Calibration of the functional parameters of the behavioural
functions for supply, human consumption, feed demand, and processing to
exogenous elasticities, ensuring regularity (homogeniety, symmetry,
curvature), both for thebase and the simulation year. (See also: Parameter calibration in the CAPRI documentation)
- Estimation of feed input coefficients and feed requirements so that
the forecasted feed deamnd quantities are exhausted (See also: Parameter calibration in the CAPRI
documentation)
- Calibration of the regional supply models in the simulation year
by adjusting the per activity linear terms of the quadratic cost
functions
Usage
The different controls steer the data base and baseline underlying the run, and various model settings affecting the simulation
behaviour. Please refer to the CAPRI documentation and the content
on the CAPRI web page for further information.
- Base year: the base year (three-year average), determines the data base and calibration point to use.
- Simulation year: the simulation year, determiens the calibration point to use, and the year for the policy scenario.
- Member States: either all if the global market model is switched on, or user selected.
- Regional Break Down: typically, NUTS 2 is used (about 250 regions for EU27, Western Balkans and Norway). Resolution at "Member States"
is only useful for testing purposes. The "Farm types" are currently still in a testing phase, a final release a planned for spring 2009.
- Number of iterations: The supply module and
market model of CAPRI
are sequentially
linked. The market model is calibrated to results of the supply
model, whereas the supply model is solve at prices of the market model.
1 iterations is recommended.
- Scenario file name: File in GAMS format
storing the exogenous drivers for the simulation. A text editor as e.g.
the GAMS IDE should be used to open and edit those files, found in the
"GAMS\POL_INPUT" directory of the current CAPRI model file directory.
- Global market model: If switched on, the
model will iterate between the supply module
and market model, and prices for
primary and secondary agricultural products will be endogenous.
- Young animal market model: If switched on, the
model will iterate between the supply module
and market module for young animals, and prices for
young animals will be endogenous.
The remaining four check boxes will switch on and off certain parts of the post-model reporting.
Note
During the run, selected results from the iterations can be opended in a separate viewer as described
in Tracking the iteration behaviour of CAPRI.
It is recommended to test afterwards if the model convergences with a simulation run
using a copy of the policy file used for the calibration, and 15 iterations.